As Tanzania prepares for its highly anticipated October 2025 general elections, global attention is turning to the nation’s increasingly fragile democratic framework. The political climate has grown tense, and the exclusion of the main opposition party, CHADEMA (Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo), from the electoral process raises critical questions about the credibility and freedom of the polls. With the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), tightening its grip on power, international observers and democratic advocates are voicing deep concerns over what is being described as a dangerous slide into authoritarianism.
At the center of the current political storm is CHADEMA chairperson Tundu Lissu, who is being held on non-bailable treason charges offenses that carry the death penalty under Tanzanian law. Lissu’s vocal call for electoral reforms under the campaign slogan “No Reforms, No Elections” has been deemed by the courts as a threat to national stability. In addition to treason, he faces accusations of incitement and publishing false information, further complicating the opposition’s already weakened position ahead of the vote.
This year’s elections mark Tanzania’s seventh general election since it adopted multiparty democracy in 1995. Yet, the CCM has never relinquished power, winning every election often amid allegations of voter suppression, electoral fraud, media censorship, and political violence. Political analysts argue that what Tanzania now practices is electoral authoritarianism, where elections occur not as a democratic exercise but as a controlled mechanism to legitimize the ruling party’s continued dominance.
Tanzania’s democratic backslide has been well-documented. Since 2016, the country has been rated “Partly Free” by Freedom House due to its flawed electoral practices and suppression of civil liberties. However, in 2025, the watchdog organization downgraded Tanzania to the “Not Free” category, citing increasing restrictions on political rights and freedoms. The erosion of democratic institutions was particularly pronounced under the late President John Magufuli, who presided over sweeping crackdowns on civil society, independent journalism, and digital freedoms. The enactment of laws like the Cybercrimes Act and the Online Content Regulations effectively criminalized dissent and facilitated the weaponization of state power against opposition voices.
In the 2020 elections, Magufuli won with a staggering 84.4% of the vote, while CCM captured an overwhelming 98.7% of parliamentary seats. This political monopoly was replicated in Zanzibar and extended in the 2024 local elections, where CCM claimed 99.3% of the vote. These numbers, while statistically extraordinary, have done little to convince the international community of the elections’ credibility.
Tanzania’s ruling party mirrors a broader trend among liberation-era parties in Southern Africa—including South Africa’s ANC, Zimbabwe’s ZANU-PF, Mozambique’s FRELIMO, and Namibia’s SWAPO where historical liberation credentials are used to justify ongoing one-party dominance. These parties have entrenched themselves in national institutions, enabling the expansion of patronage networks and undermining genuine multiparty competition. As seen in the flawed elections of Mozambique and Zimbabwe, the likelihood of Tanzania delivering free and fair polls in 2025 appears slim.
President Samia Suluhu Hassan, who assumed office in 2021 following Magufuli’s death, initially signaled a break from her predecessor’s autocratic style. Promoting her “4R” strategy. Reconciliation, Resilience, Reforms, and Rebuilding she opened channels of dialogue with the opposition and promised comprehensive electoral reforms. However, despite the passage of three electoral bills in 2024, substantial changes have not materialized. Critically, the new Independent National Electoral Commission still operates under presidential appointment, undermining the very independence it was meant to ensure. This unresolved issue has further galvanized CHADEMA’s boycott call.
Internally, CCM itself is grappling with division. Factions have emerged, accusing President Hassan of bypassing established nomination procedures and favoring loyalists. Allegations of enforced disappearances and intimidation tactics against critics have intensified, reinforcing fears of deepening authoritarian practices. Even the nomination process for parliamentary and ward positions has been temporarily halted due to accusations of bias and manipulation.
Adding to the opposition’s woes is the increasing alignment of minor opposition parties with CCM, weakening the collective voice for reform. Many Tanzanians now regard these parties as mere extensions of the ruling party, diminishing faith in political alternatives.
With public discourse under constant surveillance and media restrictions tightening, many Tanzanians have turned to encrypted digital platforms like WhatsApp, X Spaces, and Clubhouse to discuss the upcoming elections. Anticipating unrest, the government has responded by restricting internet access, prompting users to adopt VPNs to bypass censorship—a trend also seen during youth-led protests in neighboring Kenya.
International actors are watching with growing concern. Although regional election observer missions from the African Union (AU), the Southern African Development Community (SADC), and the East African Community (EAC) are expected, these bodies are frequently criticized for legitimizing flawed electoral processes under the guise of diplomatic neutrality. The African Union sent a pre-election assessment team to Tanzania in June, but its findings have yet to be released. Meanwhile, the European Parliament has condemned Lissu’s arrest, and while the EU and the United States may consider using diplomatic or financial leverage, their strategic interests in the region often dampen the effectiveness of such pressure.
One of the most pressing issues ahead of the polls is the accreditation of election observers. During the previous general elections, major international monitors were barred. Domestic observer groups, which played a vital role in exposing electoral irregularities in Mozambique’s 2024 elections, are expected to play a similar role in Tanzania. Their presence is essential not just for transparency, but also for documenting voter intimidation, ballot tampering, and other forms of electoral malpractice.
With the October 2025 elections looming, Tanzania stands at a critical crossroads. The continued suppression of dissent, lack of credible electoral reforms, and the silencing of opposition voices point to an electoral process designed to preserve power rather than reflect the will of the people. The international community, regional observers, and civil society must urgently demand transparency and accountability to halt the country’s descent into full-blown authoritarianism. Without decisive action, the upcoming elections may further entrench Tanzania’s political decay, turning democracy into little more than a ceremonial facade.
